CEQT Center of Excellence in Quantum Technology

Applications › Agent-based modelling of emergent behaviour

Applications · Complex systems

Agent-based modelling of emergent behaviour

Systems whose behaviour cannot be derived from their components — markets, epidemics, grids, cities — modelled by simulation rather than by solution.

The problem

Some systems have no closed form. The behaviour that matters — a cascade, a bubble, a tipping point — emerges from many local interactions and is not visible in any individual component. For these, simulation is not a second-best approach to analysis; it is the only approach.

Agent-based modelling is the standard tool, and its weakness is well known: the parameter space is enormous, calibration is hard, and it is easy to produce a model that reproduces history and predicts nothing. That calibration problem is itself an optimisation problem, and that is where the rest of the centre becomes useful.

Approach

Agent-based simulation with quantum-inspired components; calibration cast as global optimisation and handed to annealing or hybrid solvers; and analysis of emergent structure using fractal and complexity measures.

Classical baseline

Established. Agent-based modelling is a mature discipline with good tooling. The contribution here is in the calibration and parameter-search layer, and in the analysis of the output.

Maturity

Active. The Quantum-inspired Agent-based Simulation Laboratory is working in this area; the foundations group supplies the complexity and fractal analysis.

Direct impact

Economic and financial system modelling; epidemic and public-health scenarios; urban and infrastructure planning; energy market behaviour.

What deployment requires

Behavioural data or plausible behavioural rules; a defined question the model is meant to answer — general-purpose models answer nothing in particular; and compute for the parameter sweep, which is usually the largest cost.

Pillars involved
Simulation Foundations
Maturity of this workwhere this sits today, not where it could sit
ExploratoryPublished resultWorking prototypeIn service

Evidence

  • “Chaotic dynamics and fractal analysis of nonstandard Hamiltonian systems.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 200, 116974 (2025). doi
  • “Stability and chaos in nonstandard Hamiltonian planetary dynamics.” Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 202, 117410 (2026). doi

Talk to us about this

Complex-systems work goes wrong when the question is vague. Bring a decision you need to make, and we will tell you whether a model can inform it.

How to start a project →

Last updated 14 September 2026.